Bond Market 11-3-10

It will be interesting to see what happens to bonds this afternoon when the Fed announces its QE2 plans. I have seen rationale for both rising and falling bond prices. However, once we get past this news, there is little disagreement about the future of the bond market - there is little upside potential and a lot of downside risk.
Bonds can only keep  going up if interest rates keep falling. Problem is there is not much room left for interest rates to fall. If these record low interest rates stay steady for the next year, then bond prices should remain relatively steady for the next year. But inflation is coming - it has to given all the government spending and now QE2 which is just printing more dollars. The only question in the investment community is When - this month, by year end, by next summer.
In the classes I teach, I consistently hear people talk about putting most of their money in bonds funds thinking they are safe vs. the stock market which they view as a casino. This is not the way to view these two markets and bond fund holders are going to be sorry over the next several years.
Here is an article by Bill Gross at Pacific Investment Management (PIMCO),  one of the country's most respected Bond Managers. Please take heed.

http://www.thestreet.com/story/10902225/bill-gross-qe2-signals-end-of-bond-rally.html

Annual expenses lower in ETFs vs. Mutual Funds

 Question asked during Adult Ed Investment class tonight.

Question was why are ETF annual expenses lower than mutual fund expenses, even indexed funds.

"Lower costs
Expenses can have a significant impact on returns for investors. ETFs, in general, have significantly lower annual expense ratios than other investment products. ETFs are less likely to experience high management fees because they are index-based, not “actively” managed. And, since they trade on an exchange, ETFs are insulated from the costs of having to buy and sell securities to accommodate shareholder purchases and redemptions".

I took the above excerpt from the articles on my website. You might want to read all the articles since they are fairly comprehensive.

here is the page which has 4 articles on it so scroll down:

     http://www.trendlinefinancialsolutions.com/category/investing/

Bull, Bear or Neutral

OK, so what am I normally - Bull, Bear or neutral?
Normally I am bullish and have been so for the past 2 years. Starting 1 month ago I changed to mild Bear.
Why? I think the upcoming move by the Fed, which is already baked into the markets, will not achieve anything but artificial bubbles in the equity, bond and  commodity markets. Below is a very good article recently on what the Fed is doing and why it is ludicrous. This does not mean that I am out of the market, but I am not "all in". I have also started hedging equities. Concerning Fixed markets, I think the future best investment will be to short bonds, mainly in the 20 year maturity area. However I do not think it is time yet to start the shorting - maybe  by year end depending upone the effect of the Fed QE2.

-- Dr. John Hussman, "Bernanke Leaps Into a Liquidity Trap"

The Down 50%, Up 100% Conundrum

Average people think in terms of dollars, not percentages.
When comparing investments, the use of percentages allow one to compare investment returns without having to know the amount of money invested, only the time period needs to be the same. This is the Time Weighted Rate of Return. If one compared dollar increase or decrease, one would need to know the amount invested to compare the investments. This would be quite tedious and futile. All performance returns you see on TV and in the papers are stated in terms of Percentage gain or loss.

The problem is average people have a hard time thinking in Percentages. We tend to ignore the Base Number upon which the percentage is based.

For example, assume you have a $1,000 portfolio that loses 50% of its value or $500. What percentage increase would be needed to return the portfolio to its original $1,000. Consistently, in Adult Ed classes I teach, the asnwer comes back 50%.  NO, the answer is 100%.

People answering 50% forget that the Base Number has changed. Their mind tells them that if I lose 50% of $1,000, then  I have to gain 50% of 1,000 to get back to $1,000. That is actually a true statement, but after losing 50% of  $1,000, you only have $500. This $500 is now how much you have in your portfolio after the loss and becomes the new Base Number. Now to increase your $500 portfolio so that it  becomes $1,000, you would have to earn another $500 or a 100% gain in your $500 portfolio.

In short, if your investment loses 50%, it takes a 100% gain to return to even - the Down 50%, Up 100% scenario.

I should note that the above is a mathematical calculation that would need to be done if you plug in other percentage scenarios.  So, if  your investment loses only 10%, it does not mean that you have to earn 20% to get back to even. If your $1,000 investment lost 10% or $100, you would have to earn 11%  ($100 / $900) to get back to even. The Down 50%, Up 100% example is normally used in explanations since the answer is so dramatically different that what our minds expect the answer to be.

Welcome to Trendline Financial Investing Thoughts

My name is Peter Owen and I am president of Trendline Financial Solutions, a personal Financial Planning practice on Long Island. There are several reasons I started this blog  to voice periodic musings on Investment topics and the Markets:
- people have been asking me in my Practice to give my opinion on many investing topics.
- I do not want to overload my exisitng website with a lot of  short commentary. Longer articles  are posted on my Website -  http://www.trendlinefinancialsolutions.com/
-Many of the comments will address issues raised during the Adult Education financial classes I teach each week. Since average Long Island people attend those classes, some to learn and some to socialize, I find that the questions raised during those classes are applicable to most average investors.

I hope you find the future posts useful and informative.

Peter B. Owen, ChFC, CLU, FLMI, CRSP, CISP
President and Chief Financial Planner
Trendline Financial Solutions
1675 Cedar Beach Road, Southold, NY 11971
223 Parker Avenue, West Hempstead, NY 11552

Phone: (516)317-2860

Email: info@TrendlineFinancialSolutions.com
Website : TrendlineFinancialSolutions.